Source: China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA)
1. Overall situation of global photovoltaic application market in 2023
In 2023, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 390GW, a year-on-year increase of 69.6%, and the cumulative installed capacity will be about 1546GW . In 2023, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach a new high.
In 2023, China will still maintain its leading position in the global new installed capacity market, with an annual new installed capacity of 216.3GW on the AC side, setting a new record. The new photovoltaic installed capacity has remained the world's first for 11 consecutive years since 2013. In 2023, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed half of the world's new installed capacity, and the cumulative installed capacity will account for nearly 40% of the world's total.
2. Changes in major photovoltaic market policies
(1) The United States develops domestic photovoltaic industry chain
In recent years, the United States has passed and issued a number of major bills, including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Buy American Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act, etc., attempting to promote the development of local photovoltaics by increasing investment in research and innovation, strengthening the competitiveness of local manufacturing, increasing market investment enthusiasm, and accelerating project development and utilization. Stimulated by relevant policies, the installed capacity of solar power generation in the United States continues to grow. According to statistics from the Photovoltaic Industry Association (SEIA), the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in the United States will reach 179GW in 2023, with an average growth of 22% over the past decade.
On the manufacturing side, the Inflation Reduction Act also stimulated the development of the local photovoltaic manufacturing industry, and the production capacity of local components has increased from 8GW in 2022 to more than 12GW at present. Since 2023, companies such as JA Solar, LONGi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, TCL Zhonghuan, Canadian Solar, and Trina Solar have accelerated the construction of overseas production capacity, integrated into the regional industrial chain system, and announced investments in photovoltaic manufacturing projects in the United States. By 2026, the production capacity of local components in the United States is expected to reach 123GW. However, there are various difficulties and challenges from planning to actual execution and then to the implementation of the project. Due to difficulties in financing, manufacturing experience, market competition, technology, raw materials, etc., most of the new production capacity is difficult to implement.
(2) EU supports photovoltaic manufacturing and strengthens supply chain resilience
In 2022, REPowerEU plans to further increase the target of renewable energy consumption to 45%, and the installed capacity of renewable energy can reach 1,236GW. Among them, the EU Solar Strategy, as part of this plan, sets a development goal of more than 320GW of new photovoltaic installed capacity by 2025 and more than 600GW by 2030. On March 16, 2023, the European Commission proposed the "Net Zero Industry Act" and the "Critical Raw Materials Act" bills, stipulating that by 2030, the EU's local zero-carbon technology production capacity must reach 40%. At the same time, in order to strengthen the EU's ability to extract, process and recycle strategic raw materials, it is also stipulated that 10% of strategic raw materials will be mined in the EU in 2030, and another 15% of the EU's key raw materials will be strictly recycled. From the perspective of policy measures, it mainly includes optimizing the project licensing process, providing financial support, strengthening talent supply, improving product information transparency, and implementing carbon tariffs and industrial subsidies.
(3) India strives to promote the development of its domestic photovoltaic industry
In 2022, India officially updated its "Nationally Determined Contribution" based on the Paris Climate Agreement, pledging to reduce the carbon intensity of its GDP by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030; with the help of technology transfer and low-cost international financing including the Green Climate Fund (GCF), by 2030, the cumulative installed power capacity of non-fossil energy will reach 50% of the total capacity, and the installed capacity of non-fossil energy will reach 500GW, of which solar energy will provide 280GW. At the same time, the Indian government has also adopted some protectionist policies for the photovoltaic industry. First, the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) was implemented. From April 1, 2022, the government will impose a basic tariff of 25% on imported solar photovoltaic cells and a basic tariff of 40% on imported solar photovoltaic modules. On March 29, 2024, the Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) announced that the ALMM list of solar photovoltaic modules should take effect from April 1, 2024.
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